Publications

A new journal article on forecasting the implications of weapons technologies.

Dr. Cameron Tracy

A study leveraging a new experimental wargame to solve challenges faced by nuclear deterrence analysts.

Andrew W. Reddie, Bethany L. Goldblum, Mika Armenta, Ruby Booth, Kiran Lakkaraju, Joshua Letchford, Jason Reinhardt, Matthew L. Schnell

This is a user guide for the Hypersonic Glide Vehicle Simulator.

Dr. Cameron L. Tracy, Dr. David Wright, Justin Ly, Anita Ding

This joint statement expresses concerns and outlines risks associated with the expiration of the U.S.–Russian Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START) on 5 February 2026.

Signatories: Affiliations are for identification purposes only and do not reflect institutional positions. Lucian Bumeder, Researcher, Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg Thomas Countryman, Chairman, Board of Directors, Arms Control Association Tobias Fella, Project Director and Senior Researcher, Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg Steve Fetter, Professor, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland Alexander Graef, Non-Resident Fellow, Institute for Peace Sesearch and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg Patricia Jaworek, Director, Global Nuclear Policy Program, Nuclear Threat Initiative Daryl G. Kimball, Executive Director, Arms Control Association Angela Kane, Former United Nations Under-Secretary-General and High Representative for Disarmament Affairs Laura Kennedy, Ambassador (Ret.), Former U.S. Representative to the Conference on Disarmament, Hans Kristensen, Director, Nuclear Information Project, Federation of American Scientists Noah C. Mayhew, Senior Research Associate, Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation Oliver Meier, Senior Commissioner, Challenges to Deep Cuts Victor Mizin, Leading Researcher, Institute of World Economy and International Relations Götz Neuneck, Chairman, Federation of German Scientists; Senior Research Fellow, Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg Hanna Notte, Director, Eurasia Nonproliferation Program, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies Olga Oliker, Senior Commissioner, Challenges to Deep Cuts Steven Pifer, Affiliate, Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University Lindsay Rand, Research Scholar, U.C. Berkeley Lynn Rusten, Former Senior Director for Arms Control and Nonproliferation on the National Security Council staff Greg Thielmann, Retired American Foreign Service Officer; Member, Arms Control Association Tim Thies, Researcher, Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg Andrei Zagorski, Professor, Institute of World Economy and International Relations Wolfgang Zellner, Senior Research Fellow, Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg

A new report on using wargaming as a tool to analyze deception in the context of international security.

Hiroyasu Akutsu, Ruby Booth, Rex Brynen, Scott DeJong, Stephen Downes-Martin, Richard Garber, Mark Howard, Alex Karasick, Andrew Reddie

LLM Mirage, the belief that national security risks scale in proportion to the compute used to train frontier language models, is shaping U.S. AI security policy. This piece unpacks why that belief may be misguided.

Ritwik Gupta, Andrew Reddie

Explaining key issues holding up progress in commercial spyware governance.

Dr. Elaine Korzak

Insights offered by the Wassenaar export controls into the regulation of commercial spyware — and why that, in turn, makes them instructive for current initiatives like the Pall Mall Process.

Dr. Elaine Korazak

Understanding differences between the drivers of Russian and Chinese nuclear behavior can inform deterrence and escalation management.
Linda Bachg and Daniel Kroth.

Artificial Intelligence is reshaping the business of cybercrime.

Gil Baram, Leah Walker

How the global mechanisms indicated in the 2021-2025 open-ended working group (OEWG)'s final report fall short — and why that hampers meaningful progress within the forum dedicated to this in the UN.

As commercial artificial intelligence models have become increasingly sophisticated, we need to build a discipline around red teaming tools, protocols, and red teamers themselves.

Leah Walker, Jake Hecla, Cara Marie Wagner, Andrew Reddie