Wargaming

New technologies and complex geopolitical dynamics affect international security and   national decision-making in uncertain ways and yet testing hypotheses that seek to explain  these mechanisms in the absence of historical real-world data is notoriously difficult. Enter wargaming.

Wargaming at BRSL carries an essential function of gathering and analyzing data about emerging technology trends and national policies that shape international security dynamics. With the help of robust, realistic, and engaging wargames and tabletop exercises, our researchers test their hypotheses in controlled conditions with diverse groups of participants. In turn, the Lab is better equipped to assess decision-maker assumptions and predict future developments related to frontier security challenges in a comprehensive and data-driven fashion.

Research

The three main BRSL research areas – Defense Analysis and Strategy; Technology, Governance, and (Inter)National Security; and Industrial Policy and Economic Competition – each benefit from our wargaming approach to data collection and analysis. 

Current Projects

DISTRUST: Disinformation in Military Contexts

  • The combination of widespread use of social media by citizens, military personnel, and government officials and the proliferation of AI-generated content creates the perfect recipe for rampant disinformation. In a crisis situation, adversaries can exploit this dynamic and further thicken the information fog, leaving their opponents wondering what is true and driving alliances apart. 
  • To explore these challenges, BRSL has developed DISTRUST, a card-based wargame that simulates adversarial information operations and alliance reactions in a fast-paced crisis environment. 

AI-Wargaming Integration 

  • In order to leverage the utility of analytical wargaming most effectively, wargame designers aim to strike the optimal balance between scenario robustness, contextual realism, and player engagement, as well as mitigate the impact of their own hidden biases on responding to player actions. AI technologies hold the potential to expedite the design process and even provide personas to stand in as players or scenario adjudicators. 
  • Our team is currently working to assess the extent of this potential and provide practical recommendations for how wargame designers can integrate AI into their own research.

Wargaming Publications

  • Reddie, Andrew W., Ruby E. Booth, Bethany L. Goldblum, Kiran Lakkaraju, and Jason C. Reinhardt. “Cyber Wargames as Synthetic Data.” In Cyber Wargaming: Research and Education for Security in a Dangerous Digital World, ed. by Frank L. Smith III, Nina A. Kollars, and Benjamin H. Schechter. Georgetown University Press, 2024. 
  • Reddie, Andrew W., and Bethany L. Goldblum. “Evidence of the unthinkable: Experimental wargaming at the nuclear threshold.” Journal of Peace Research 60(5): 2023, 760-776.
  • Reddie, Andrew W., Bethany L. Goldblum, Kiran Lakkaraju, Jason C. Reinhardt, Michael Nacht, and Laura Epifanovskaya. “Next-generation wargames.” Science 362, no. 6421 (2018): 1362-1364.

Goldblum, Bethany L., and Andrew W. Reddie. “Integrating the Art and Science of Wargaming.” Lawfare. March 15, 2023.

    Wargames and Resources

    Our Wargames

    DISTRUST

    In this turn-based card game, players take on the role of states seeking to maximize their resources in a tense, disinformation-riddled environment. Make alliances to combine your efforts and launch information operations to disrupt your opponents’ relationships. But beware: the alliances you build will be just as susceptible to your adversaries’ influence!

    Partner Projects

    • SIGNAL, UC Berkeley, Sandia National Laboratories, and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
    • Tantalus, Sandia National Laboratories

    Wargaming Resources

    Risk Calculus – Season 1: Shall We Play a Game?

    In the first season of the BRSL-produced podcast Risk Calculus, Prof. Andrew Reddie takes a deep dive into the theory, history, and current practice of wargaming together with five experts working on the cutting edge of wargaming research.

    The Risk Calculus

    Get Involved

    For Students

    • Get involved with our research projects applying wargaming methodologies to today’s pressing security issues.
    • We host regular sessions playing wargames designed by BRSL and our partners. If you’d like to attend these sessions, visit our events page.
    • For any other questions, don’t hesitate to reach out to dzhukov@berkeley.edu.

    For Wargame Designers

    Do you need more players to beta-test your current wargame design or gather data for your research? BRSL is pleased to host anyone who integrates wargaming into their work, whether it’s for a Ph.D. dissertation, an academic study, businesses using scenario tools, or a military exercise. To learn more and schedule a wargame session, reach out to brsl@berkeley.edu.