About this publication
The most successful deterrent threats leave no evidence behind. No missiles fly. No networks go down. No troops cross borders. Nothing happens. For policymakers, that is often the desired outcome. For researchers, it is a nightmare. Imagine, however, being able to observe a decision-maker preparing to attack, receiving a deterrent threat, and then changing their mind. That moment — the instant deterrence succeeds — is arguably the most important observation in international security. It is also one we almost never see.