Press Release — New Project with Future of Life Institute
Berkeley Risk and Security Lab Launches New Project with Support from Future of Life Institute to Map Trajectories of Chinese and U.S. AI Development and Escalation Risks
October 24, 2025
Berkeley, CA – The University of California, Berkeley’s Risk and Security Lab (BRSL) at the Goldman School of Public Policy in collaboration with the Future of Life Institute (FLI) is launching a new multi-phase research project aimed at mapping the trajectories of U.S. and Chinese AI development, reviewing each country’s approaches to undermining each other’s development, and assessing blind spots that may lead to escalation risks.
“Understanding how AI competition unfolds between the U.S. and China means tracking technological progress, as well as recognizing how misperceptions and strategic ambiguity can fuel unintended escalation. This project is designed to examine those potential risks and communicate them to policymakers before they become crises or strategic surprises.”
— Leah Walker, Executive Director, Berkeley Risk and Security Lab
The United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) are each seeking to scale artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities across government and the private sector, leading both governments to develop policies that aim to counterbalance, outcompete, or undermine the progress of the other’s AI ecosystem. This year-long research project focuses on the respective countries’ AI development trajectories, toolkits for targeting or undermining each other’s development ecosystems, and concerns and blind spots of emerging competitor capabilities. The project will also explore the potential for escalatory actions and the risk of large-scale conflict arising from aggressive responses to these AI developments.
As competition over artificial intelligence accelerates, understanding how AI competition shapes national security decisions is vital to avoiding the mistakes of past arms races. By supporting this project with BRL, the Future of Life Institute aims to help policymakers understand how competition itself can amplify the risks of miscalculation and escalation. Mapping these dynamics is essential to ensuring that advances in AI strengthen global security rather than undermine it.
— Hamza Chaudhry, AI and National Security Lead, Future of Life Institute
As part of this project, the project team will design, test, and field a new tabletop exercise (TTX) that focuses on dyadic security competition, AI-military integration, and pathways for deliberate and inadvertent escalation, with scenarios centering on how a significant breakthrough in AI by one side could trigger economic, political, and potential military responses by the other. The Lab will also host four workshops over the course of the project period, drawing together key stakeholders across security and technology policy circles to engage on these concerns.
“Competition between the United States and China over artificial intelligence is no longer confined to questions of innovation—it’s increasingly shaping geopolitics. Yet, both sides are operating with significant blind spots about how the other is developing and deploying these technologies. Our goal is to provide the analytical clarity needed to anticipate, rather than react to, the next phase of AI-driven competition.”
— Andrew Reddie, Faculty Director, Berkeley Risk and Security Lab
BRSL representatives are available for comment upon request.