Upcoming Events

Research Webinar: Dr. Christopher Lawrence in conversation with BRSL's Dr. Cameron Tracy

The Balance of Nuclear Humility: Techno-optimism, Complexity, and the Perils of Nuclear Primacy

Overview: This research seminar will cover Dr. Lawrence’s recent research on the diverse ways in which states plan out their nuclear weapons arsenals. While some field large numbers of weapons, chasing nuclear dominance over adversaries, others are content with smaller arsenals, deemed sufficient to deter adversaries from attacking. This analysis builds on quantitative modeling of strategic nuclear strikes, showing correlations between the scale of a state’s nuclear arsenal and uncertainties in its strategic effects.

Date: Monday, June 9th, 2025

Time: 12:00 PM, Pacific Time

Location: GSPP-Hearst-Classroom-105 Cap:52

Speakers: Dr. Christopher Lawrence, Dr. Cameron Tracy

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Wargaming Deception

A new report on using wargaming as a tool to analyze deception in the context of international security.

Hiroyasu Akutsu, Ruby Booth, Rex Brynen, Scott DeJong, Stephen Downes-Martin, Richard Garber, Mark Howard, Alex Karasick, Andrew Reddie

The LLM Mirage: Economic Interests and the Subversion of Weaponization Controls

LLM Mirage, the belief that national security risks scale in proportion to the compute used to train frontier language models, is shaping U.S. AI security policy. This piece unpacks why that belief may be misguided.

Ritwik Gupta, Andrew Reddie

The Key Challenges of Governing Commercial Spyware

Explaining key issues holding up progress in commercial spyware governance.

Dr. Elaine Korzak

Taiwan Can’t Shake Its Nuclear Ghosts

Taiwan’s anti-nuclear political legacy has left it highly dependent on imported fuels and vulnerable to a potential Chinese blockade, forcing a debate over whether to revive a nuclear power program with a complex and fraught history.

Jane Darby Menton, Andrew Reddie

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Russian Nuclear ASAT Weapons: The Fallout

Reports that Russia is developing a nuclear-tipped anti-satellite weapon raised concerns about potential violation of the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, and promted a debate over whether existing international frameworks are sufficient in managing the growing risks of space militarization.

Sarthak Bhatnagar, Eli Glickman, Bethany Goldblum, Ritwik Gupta, Kaitlyn Lenkeit, Jane Darby Menton, Andrew Neciuk, Andrew Reddie, Vishwaa Sofat, Leah Walker

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2/26/24 | NPWG hosts Dr. Erik Brubaker

2/26/24 | NPWG hosts Dr. Erik Brubaker

Date: February 26 Location: UC Berkeley Risk and Security Lab, 2nd Floor Conference Room, 1995 University Ave. Time: 5:30-7 pm PT NPWG is thrilled to host Dr. Erik Brubaker from Sandia National Laboratories for a conversation about arms control verification...

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